Current Price & Market Context
- Silver is trading near $35 per ounce, marking roughly a 30% gain in 2025
- In India, prices have hit a record ₹1.12 lakh/kg (~₹112,500), fueled by industrial demand in solar and electronics.
- The surge reflects a dual role: as a safe-haven metal amid geopolitical trade tensions and as an essential industrial metal—particularly in EVs, solar PV, and electronics
Technical Analysis
Based on weekly and daily charts from sources like IG, LiteFinance, and NAGA:
| Indicator | Current Status | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance | $34.87–$35.40 tested; strong demand at $35 | A decisive breakout above this could lead to $38–$40 (IG) |
| Support | $32.50 and $31.20; rising trendline from 2022 | Ideal zones for buying dips |
| RSI/MACD | Daily RSI in overbought/mid‑60s; weekly neutral | Short-term pause may occur, but long-term uptrend holds |
| Chart Patterns | Bull flag, rising wedge, symmetrical triangle breakout | Technical signs point to continuation upwards |
Short‑term view: Expect consolidation or slight pullback after RSI overbought signals.
Mid‑term outlook: Break above $35.40 could accelerate gains toward $38–$42.
Fundamental Drivers
1. Industrial demand boom – solar, EVs, semiconductors are major drivers. By mid-2025, solar use of silver jumped ~15% YoY
2. Persistent supply deficits – ongoing supply shortfalls since 2021, e.g., ~184 million oz in 2023
3. Safe-haven appeal – trade tensions & low real rates support price floor .
4. Historical valuation gap – gold‑silver ratio near 90–100 vs historical average ~50–60 suggests silver is undervalued
5. Central bank & institutional buying – Russia adding silver to reserves is emblematic
Market Outlook & Strategy
- Near-term: Possible consolidation or modest pullback between $33–$34—watch RSI and support at $32.
- Medium-term: A breakout above $35.40–$36 could open a rally to $38–$42, potentially extending toward $50 by late 2025 if industrial and geopolitical drivers persist.
- Long-term: Under bullish forecasts, silver could reach $50–$77 by 2027–2030, pending continued structural supply deficits and electrification trends.
Strategy tips: - Use dips near $32–$33 for entry with stops just below $31.
- Add exposure on breakout above $35.50, targeting $40–$42.
- Be agile: tighten stops or take profits on sharp moves due to volatility.
Risks to Monitor
- Any pivot in Fed policy (e.g., unexpected rate hikes) may cool metal prices
- Sudden industrial demand slowdown or end to trade uncertainty could weigh on silver’s momentum.
- A spike in gold-silver ratio could suggest gold outperforming short-term.
Summary
Silver remains in a strong technical and fundamental uptrend. With support near $32–$33 and key resistance at $35.40, the stage is set for a potential breakout toward $38–$42. If global industrial growth and supply constraints remain, prices could even test $50 by year-end. A smart approach: buy dips, trail stops, and watch for decisive moves above resistance for entry.
