From a technical point of view, XAU/USD is poised to extend its slump. The daily chart shows it met sellers around a bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), providing dynamic resistance at around the daily high of $2,036.80. At the same time, technical indicators resumed their declines within negative levels, gaining downward strength. Finally, the 100 and 200 SMAs remain below the current level, losing directional strength.
The 4-hour chart shows a long bearish candle following a test of converging 100 and 200 SMAs, also around the intraday high, and XAU/USD accelerating the slide below a mildly bearish 20 SMA. Furthermore, technical indicators accelerated north, heading south almost vertically within negative levels, in line with another leg south.
Support levels: 2,011.70 2,001.60 1,988.60
Resistance levels: 2,021.80 2,033.10 2,040.30
Fundamental Overview
The US Dollar surged in the American session, driving XAU/USD down to $2,011.72, a fresh weekly low. Upbeat United States (US) data boosted the local currency. S&P Global published the preliminary estimate of the January Producer Manager Indexes (PMIs), which showed manufacturing output improved to 50.3, much better than the 47.9 previous and the highest reading in over a year. The Services PMI came in at 52.9, beating the expected 51 and above the previous 51.4. According to the official report, business activity grew at the “sharpest rate in seven months.”
Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada (BoC) announced it left its key rate unchanged at 5% following the January policy. The statement was slightly more hawkish than anticipated, weighing down the odds for an April rate cut to around 40%. Still, stock markets maintain the positive tone, with Wall Street resuming its record rally on the back of better-than-anticipated earnings reports signaling economic health.
| GMT | Event | Vol. | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THURSDAY, JAN 25 | |||||
| 13:30 | USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.15 | 0.01 | ||
| 13:45 | EUR ECB Press Conference | ||||
| 24h | AUD Australia Day | ||||
| 15:00 | USD New Home Sales (MoM) | 0.645M | 0.590M | ||
| 15:00 | USD New Home Sales Change (MoM) | -12.2% | |||
| 15:30 | USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change | -154B | |||
| 16:00 | USD Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity | -4 | |||
| 16:00 | EUR ECB’s President Lagarde speech | ||||
| 16:30 | USD 4-Week Bill Auction | 5.285% | |||
| 18:00 | USD 7-Year Note Auction | 3.859% | |||
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly XAU/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the gold-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
Gold: Doubts over Fed rate cuts outweigh escalating Middle-East tensions PREMIUM
Prices of the ounce troy of gold managed to regain balance and reverse a negative start of the week, rebounding from five-week lows in the boundaries of the key contention zone around $2,000 to reclaim the vicinity of $2,040 towards the end of the trading week.
Avg Forecast2035.2504550556065707580859095100105
- 50% Bullish
- 0% Bearish
- 50% Sideways
Bias Bullish
